In the last pair of months I’ve been performing on prospecting the Latin American current market for Actual Estate WebPortals. In my research I’ve observed that at some stage I wanted to forecast targeted traffic (number of special end users per month) in each and every of the analyzed international locations in get to have at least an approximation of the income profits from Promoting.
In my research I did not locate what I was hunting for: a basic instrument or web site in which if you pasted the URL it provides you an estimate of monthly visits/end users or website page sights. The only web site that does this variety of estimation is www.trafficestimate.com nevertheless, after extesive comparison of its results and real knowledge that I managed to get, I have to say that the error margin of this site is massive. The variability of the estimates (in comparison to real knowledge) that this web site has in its results is so significant that I simply cannot advise it for targeted traffic estimations or targeted traffic forecasting.
Although I could not locate just what I was hunting for to exact forecast targeted traffic, In the search approach I observed some exciting equipment that can be helpful:
- Google Insights Search: Really exciting instrument. It does not offer the genuine number of end users or visits, but does offer information and facts with regards to search volume of any keyword. You can see tendencies in search volumes and assess relative search volumes in between unique keywords.
- Alexa.com: This is the oldest and most in depth webtraffic data web site available for cost-free use. Even though it is really not statistically exact (Its sampling approach is not consultant) is the closest we have to an general targeted traffic ranking program . It tends to work pretty properly with sites with a “Visitors Rank” larger than a hundred.000.
- Position.com: Offers information and facts in a pretty related way than Alexa.com does: Visitors Rankings, Quantity of end users per Million, pattern graphs, etcetera.
Supplied that there wasn’t such a instrument, I made the decision to creat just one myself and I produced an Excel Model to forecast website Traffic for any site. The design I came up with is an statistical operate (the regular of a linear operate with a 2nd diploma polinomic operate) and predicts the number of end users based on Alexa’s achieve. This design, with one-way links real stats (earlier real number of end users of picked sites) to estimate end users of any web site, based on its achieve. In some conditions, simply because Alexa’s information and facts is not exact usually, the “Access” has to be “translated” into a relevan number ahead of being plugged into the Excel operate.
Although it continue to demands a large amount of work, so considerably the regular estimation error is about 7%, which is considerably better than the other equipment I managed to locate on the internet.
I can forward the Excel file on ask for and for cost-free, just in trade of knowledge to help me make a better and more exact operate.
See aspect 2 of this put up in Website traffic estimation: My excel design at my blog MBA Internet Promoting Manager