Website Traffic Estimation: My Excel Forecasting Design (aspect 2)
Due to the quantity of inquiries following my initial submitting “Website traffic estimation: is there…” I’ve made the decision to share my forecasting excel design.
To obtain: http://www.scribd.com/doc/7668443/Website traffic-Estimation-Design-one
one) Linear Purpose: y = 8E+09x + 49771
2) 2nd diploma polinomic operate: y = -1E+13×2 + 1E+10x – 3272,2
three) For the aspect of the curve that corresponds to web-sites with an Alexa website traffic rank under 100.000, the operate employed is an regular of the polinomic and linear functions
Two functions are employed to estimate website traffic. This could be upgraded, corrected and improved with more data points or sources of datapoints.
Please if you know any general public resource of reliable data of historic data on website traffic, or have any feedback e-mail me at [email protected]
4) Cells with yellow background ARE NOT Alexa’s three thirty day period regular get to. This enter was distorted, so just before inputing the data specifically from Alexa, it has to be corrected
five) The way in which this data is “corrected” is by a easy cross-multiplication aproximation to the closest higher value in the listing (the closest higher white cell).
6) This operate will not do the job effectively for not long ago produced web-sites.
seven) This product is for non-commercial use only. Any usage of these functions or aspect of this excel sheet should quotation the resource.
The outcomes I’ve bought so far with this operate have an regular error of seven%, despite the fact that it has to be explained that in some conditions, the error could be up to 40%. It has worked for me so far eighty% of the time with an error of considerably less than fifteen%, which is more than appropriate considdering the errors wound in other applications like the website Website traffic Estimate. If you have a web-site and know your figures, just look at and see the variance.
Please, this design is just a starting level, that wants to be upgraded, corrected and improved with all your feedback…. Any solutions ???